Yesterday , I did a easy tough calculation about Basic Motors to attempt to get at how a lot manufacturing job loss one might attribute to foreign competitors versus automation and productivity will increase. Various commenters objected that my assumptions had been too simplistic, particularly in neglecting the home content in overseas autos and the importance of shifts within the supply chain over time.
Complicating your exercise even more is the truth that folks are likely to hold their automobiles longer these days than they used to. That is largely as a result of quality has gone up, decreasing the frequency needed to buy a brand new car. I believe this has much more to do with the declining share of GDP dedicated to auto purchases than any of the opposite factors you mentioned.
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